"Jerusalem Post" Report: Militant Faction Mergers Signal Restructuring of Iranian Influence in Iraq

A recent report by the Israeli newspaper "The Jerusalem Post" suggests that recent announcements by prominent Iraqi factions regarding the handover of their weapons to the state may not indicate a decline in Iranian influence within Iraq, but rather a new phase of reorganizing and consolidating this influence through state institutions.

The report highlights that key factions making such declarations include Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq, led by Qais al-Khazali, and the Imam Ali Brigades, led by Shibl al-Zaidi. Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq announced the formation of a committee to oversee the weapon handover and inventory its arms, while the Imam Ali Brigades stated their decision was motivated by "national responsibility," strengthening national unity, and preserving the gains of victory.

U.S. Special Envoy for Syria and Iraq, Tom Barancik, welcomed these developments, viewing them as a step towards consolidating Iraqi sovereignty and re-establishing state monopoly over arms. He praised the factions' decision to return weapons to state institutions as foundational for stability and systemic reconstruction.

These movements follow Muqtada al-Sadr's recent announcement of integrating the armed capabilities of Saraya al-Salam into the Iraqi armed forces, a move observers interpreted as a potential shift in the security and political landscape. However, the report posits that an optimistic interpretation of these events overlooks the complexities of the Iraqi situation, suggesting a potential repositioning within the pro-Iranian camp rather than a withdrawal.

The report specifically focuses on the influence of the head of the Iraqi Supreme Judicial Council, Faeq Zidan, describing him as a pivotal figure in political decision-making despite limited international visibility. Citing reports and studies, it asserts that Zidan has played a crucial role since 2018 in determining the trajectory of Iraqi government formations, with any prime ministerial candidate needing his approval or intervention to advance. The report also notes that U.S. Envoy Tom Barancik's visit to Zidan occurred amidst U.S. efforts to prevent the return of former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki to power, with American pressure, including threats of financial measures related to Iraq's banking system, contributing to the reshaping of political balances.

The report draws on a 2023 study by the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point, which indicated Zidan's decisive role during the post-2021 election government formation crisis. The study suggests that rulings from the Federal Supreme Court altered government formation mechanisms and raised the required majority threshold, hindering the formation of a government that excluded Iran-aligned factions and subsequently aiding the return of Tehran-aligned forces to the political scene, culminating in the formation of Mohammed Shia' Al Sudani's government in October 2022.

According to the study, Zidan maintained close ties with figures associated with Iran's Quds Force, and his influence within the judiciary was reportedly supported by the late commander Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, whom Zidan described as the "protector of the Shiite project." Despite these connections, the report argues that political disputes in Iraq reflect genuine competition for influence among various networks within the Iran-aligned camp, including rivalries between Qais al-Khazali's supporters and Nouri al-Maliki's network.

The report concludes that the announced integration of factional forces into state institutions may be part of a strategy to solidify political influence and mitigate external pressures, particularly in light of U.S. threats of economic and financial measures against Baghdad. The developments, in its view, do not signal a weakening of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps' grip on Iraq or a complete triumph of national sovereignty, but rather a more intricate restructuring of power dynamics within the political and security framework established in recent years.